Open Briefing: Reports that construction of an alternative oil pipeline from South Sudan to Port Lamu, Kenya, will begin in October 2013 are overly optimistic and on-schedule pipeline construction is unlikely. However, Juba is highly likely to continue to seek alternatives to the existing pipeline to Port Sudan, Sudan. Read more
Risk updates and forecasts. Includes the clashes between demonstrators and police in anti-government protests in Turkey and the discovery of a suspected Hezbollah arms cache in Kano and the arrest of three Lebanese nationals by Nigerian security services. Read more
For the first two years of the Syrian civil war foreign leaders regularly predicted that Assad’s government would fall any day. That the regime is on its last legs has always been something of a myth. The reality is that neither side is winning the war. Read more
By recently admitting more observers, the Arctic Council will likely become more important as a forum for discussions on Arctic issues. However, this does not necessarily mean it will be able to establish itself as a central decision-making body regarding Arctic matters. Read more
Open Briefing: Turkey is likely to continue increasing economic and military links with Sudan, but high-profile political engagement with Sudanese officials will remain difficult for Ankara. Read more
Open Briefing: Minimising IMF financial support through access to Gulf State finance allows Morsi to craft new political narratives that reject views of Egypt as a US client state and redefines Egypt within a framework of Arab nationalism and centre-right political Islam. Read more
The White House has published its much anticipated national strategy for the Arctic region, which lays out the administration’s strategic priorities for the region but lacks a comprehensive implementation strategy and long-term budgetary plan. Read more
Risk updates and forecasts. Includes the rising tensions between Taiwan and the Philippines following the killing of a Taiwanese fisherman by the Philippine coast guard in contested waters and the increasing pace and scale of fighting in Afghanistan. Read more
In the recent elections in Pakistan, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz won 124 seats, Pakistan Peoples Party won 31, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf won 27. This is a large enough portion for Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N that it will not have to form a coalition government. Read more
US military strategy has changed during the decade that followed 9/11 and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. This shift in the direction of “remote control” involves greater reliance not just on armed-drones but on special forces. Read more
This Joint Intelligence Bulletin from the Department of Homeland Security and the FBI provides information on the devices used in the 15 April 2013 Boston Marathon explosions. Read more
The tempo of the violence in Syria continues to quicken as increasing amounts of weaponry are entering the country. The Syrian government is receiving substantial support from Iran, often in collaboration with the Lebanese Hizballah militia, and continues to take delivery of weapons from Russia. Read more
Review of terrorist activity across the world, but with a focus on the Middle East and Africa, during March 2012. Includes the announcement that Jordanian security officials have handed Sulaiman Abu Ghaith, Osama bin Laden’s son-in-law and allegedly a core member of al-Qaeda, over to US custody. Read more
The Invisible Armies Insurgency Tracker presents a database of insurgencies from 1775 to 2012. The visualisation draws on existing databases of insurgencies, but it is designed to be more wide-ranging, more detailed and more accurate than any previous compendium. Read more
Risk updates and forecasts. Includes the beginning of the Taliban’s yearly Spring Offensive in Afghanistan and the deaths of at least 220 people in a major backlash by armed anti-government protesters in the central and northern provinces of Iraq. Read more
East Asia and the Pacific has experienced rapid economic and social changes during the past few decades, which have created considerable regulation challenges. Criminal enterprises have developed alongside legitimate commerce, creating contraband markets valued at approximately $90 billion. Read more
Open Briefing: On 15 April 2013, there were two explosions near the finishing line of the Boston Marathon, in Boston, MA, United States. This dossier is a collection of open source intelligence from the first 72 hours after the bombings. Read more
Risk updates and forecast. Includes the ongoing dockworkers strike at the Hong Kong International Terminal and the sophisticated cyber-attacks that targeted independent media outlets in Malaysia on 12 April. Read more
World military expenditure totalled $1.75 trillion in 2012, a fall of 0.5% in real terms since 2011. The fall – the first since 1998 – was driven by major spending cuts in the United States and Western and Central Europe, as well as in Australia, Canada and Japan. Read more
The debate surrounding US nuclear policy focuses too narrowly on reducing the number of nuclear weapons in the American arsenal toward zero. More important is preventing the use of nuclear weapons in whatever numbers they exist. Read more