Transnational organised crime monthly briefing, July 2015: Attack on tourists in Port El Kantaoui highlights threat of terrorism and organised crime in Tunisia

  • Source: Intelligence unit
  • Filed: 17 July 2015

Monthly intelligence briefing on transnational organised crime from Open Briefing. This month: the attack on tourists in Port El Kantaoui highlights threat of terrorism and organised crime in Tunisia; organised environmental crime continues to threaten the Amazon region; people smuggling and human trafficking through Bulgaria and Romania is likely to increase; and more. Read more

Intelligence brief: Reducing the supply of weapons to Boko Haram

  • Source: Intelligence unit
  • Filed: 12 March 2015
  • One response

This briefing assesses Boko Haram’s arsenal, where those munitions come from, and how best to reduce the flow of weapons to the group. The group’s weaponry is predominantly of Russian and Eastern European stock looted from police stations and military bases within Nigeria. It will be impossible to stem the flow of weapons to Boko Haram completely. Ultimately, it will be efforts to tackle the deep structural socio-economic problems in northern Nigeria that will have the most success in fundamentally weakening Boko Haram. Read more

Transnational organised crime monthly briefing, January 2015: Spotlight on Africa

  • Source: Intelligence unit
  • Filed: 19 January 2015

Monthly intelligence briefing on transnational organised crime from Dr Mary Young. This month’s spotlight on Africa includes details of the warship gifted to the Nigerian Navy by the United States to help combat transnational organised maritime crime in Nigerian waters, including piracy, oil theft and terrorism. Read more

Increasing Boko Haram violence threatens upcoming Nigerian elections

  • Source: Blog
  • Filed: 16 January 2015

With a general election due to be held in Nigeria on 14 February, Boko Haram has intensified its efforts to bring larger swathes of the country under its control. Given the relative inability of the Nigerian Army to suppress the growth of the organisation, it is highly likely that Boko Haram will succeed in seizing further territory in the northeast of the country, threatening the legitimacy of the general election. Read more

Hope for political resolution of conflict in South Sudan despite suspension of peace talks

  • Source: Blog
  • Filed: 4 December 2014

If the peace talks in South Sudan progress, there is the potential for a successful political resolution of the conflict; however, this will ultimately rely the wider political and economic stability of this relatively fledgling country. With tribes in many regions of the country possessing considerable arsenals, it is likely that inter-tribal disputes over land rights and natural resources will threaten the reconciliation process. Read more

Nigeria further destabilised by attacks in northeast of country

  • Source: Blog
  • Filed: 4 December 2014

While government forces have been able to make some limited progress in recapturing towns held by Boko Haram, success has often only been possible with the support of armed civilians. It appears that Nigeria’s security forces are struggling with the insurgency despite having the largest standing army in the region. It is highly likely that Boko Haram will attempt to disrupt the February 2015 elections through sustained attacks in northeastern Nigeria. Read more

Civilian rule returns to Burkina Faso but armed forces retain considerable power

  • Source: Blog
  • Filed: 4 December 2014

Considering the short timeframe in which power has been returned to a civilian institution in Burkina Faso, the makeup of the new interim government, and the strong outside influences of the African Union, UN and Western allies, it is likely that the elections scheduled for November 2015 will take place successfully. However, the relatively significant involvement of the armed forces in this process may be a cause for concern should the electoral process fail to form a legitimate government. Read more

A complex transition to power is in the making in Burkina Faso

  • Author: Gustavo Plácido dos Santos
  • Published: 7 November 2014

Blaise Compaoré’s departure after 27 years at the helm of Burkina Faso was the result of a show of popular resilience and strength. However, the immediate aftermath of this event raises some doubts over whether anything will change at all. While Compaoré resigned due to the popular protests and the anti-establishment violence that ensued, the revolution in Burkina Faso seems to have been hijacked by the military. Read more


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