Maritime insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea

  • Source: Intelligence unit
  • Filed: 19 March 2014

The Gulf of Guinea, off the south coast of West Africa, has recently surpassed the more infamous Gulf of Aden, off the coast of Somalia in East Africa, as the epicentre of maritime insecurity. This intelligence brief explores the drivers of the problem and the complex nature of the challenges and possible responses, and sets out forecasts for maritime insecurity in the region in 2014. Read more

Southern Africa: Forecasts for insecurity and conflict in 2014

  • Author: Nick Branson
  • Published: 28 February 2014

Some narratives have painted Southern Africa as a region largely absent of conflict and insecurity. In reality, instability persists beneath the surface due to corruption and inequitable settlements following independence or struggles for national liberation. This study from Open Briefing provides forecasts for 10 Southern African countries over 2014. Read more

Central Africa: Forecasts for insecurity and conflict in 2014

  • Author: Nick Branson
  • Published: 20 February 2014

The conflicts that have devastated Central Africa have created a profound level of instability, cycles of repeat violence and a ‘bad neighbourhood’ from which its members have no recourse, particularly landlocked states. Given the high levels of poverty and lack of opportunity, the outlook for much of the region looks bleak. This study from Open Briefing provides forecasts for four Central African countries over 2014. Read more

West Africa: Forecasts for insecurity and conflict in 2014

  • Author: Gustavo Plácido dos Santos
  • Published: 14 February 2014

Some narratives have painted West Africa as a region where conflict and insecurity occur naturally due to ethnic tensions and porous borders. In reality, the underlying sources and drivers of instability are critical to understanding events. This study from Open Briefing attempts to avoid generalisations by analysing specific factors and identifying forecasts for individual countries in the region. Read more

Education and violent extremism in Nigeria

  • Author: Gustavo Plácido dos Santos
  • Published: 30 October 2013
  • 2 responses

In this article co-published with openDemocracy, Gustavo Plácido dos Santos asks whether in a context of poor school attendance among Muslims in northern Nigeria is the almajiri system favoured by Boko Haram compatible with a peacebuilding project for the country? Read more

Seven things you need to know about South Sudan’s government crisis

  • Source: Enough Project
  • Filed: 26 July 2013

South Sudanese President Salva Kiir has dissolved his cabinet, fired his vice-president and disposed the chairman of the ruling party. Few observers had expected such a dramatic move. Behind it lies a fierce power struggle inside the ruling party. Read more

Egypt: Persistent issues undermine stability

  • Source: Stratfor
  • Filed: 5 July 2013

Egypt’s crisis goes much deeper than the recent political chaos. Egypt’s population has grown well beyond the means of the state to support its needs, and even a strong state will struggle to ensure sufficient supplies of basic staples, particularly fuel and wheat. Read more

Intelligence brief: The likelihood and potential impacts of alternative South Sudan oil pipelines

  • Source: Open Briefing
  • Filed: 5 June 2013

Open Briefing: Reports that construction of an alternative oil pipeline from South Sudan to Port Lamu, Kenya, will begin in October 2013 are overly optimistic and on-schedule pipeline construction is unlikely. However, Juba is highly likely to continue to seek alternatives to the existing pipeline to Port Sudan, Sudan. Read more

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