A complex transition to power is in the making in Burkina Faso

  • Author: Gustavo Plácido dos Santos
  • Published: 7 November 2014

Blaise Compaoré’s departure after 27 years at the helm of Burkina Faso was the result of a show of popular resilience and strength. However, the immediate aftermath of this event raises some doubts over whether anything will change at all. While Compaoré resigned due to the popular protests and the anti-establishment violence that ensued, the revolution in Burkina Faso seems to have been hijacked by the military. Read more

Maritime insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea

  • Source: Intelligence unit
  • Filed: 19 March 2014

The Gulf of Guinea, off the south coast of West Africa, has recently surpassed the more infamous Gulf of Aden, off the coast of Somalia in East Africa, as the epicentre of maritime insecurity. This intelligence brief explores the drivers of the problem and the complex nature of the challenges and possible responses, and sets out forecasts for maritime insecurity in the region in 2014. Read more

Southern Africa: Forecasts for insecurity and conflict in 2014

  • Author: Nick Branson
  • Published: 28 February 2014

Some narratives have painted Southern Africa as a region largely absent of conflict and insecurity. In reality, instability persists beneath the surface due to corruption and inequitable settlements following independence or struggles for national liberation. This study from Open Briefing provides forecasts for 10 Southern African countries over 2014. Read more

Central Africa: Forecasts for insecurity and conflict in 2014

  • Author: Nick Branson
  • Published: 20 February 2014

The conflicts that have devastated Central Africa have created a profound level of instability, cycles of repeat violence and a ‘bad neighbourhood’ from which its members have no recourse, particularly landlocked states. Given the high levels of poverty and lack of opportunity, the outlook for much of the region looks bleak. This study from Open Briefing provides forecasts for four Central African countries over 2014. Read more

West Africa: Forecasts for insecurity and conflict in 2014

  • Author: Gustavo Plácido dos Santos
  • Published: 14 February 2014

Some narratives have painted West Africa as a region where conflict and insecurity occur naturally due to ethnic tensions and porous borders. In reality, the underlying sources and drivers of instability are critical to understanding events. This study from Open Briefing attempts to avoid generalisations by analysing specific factors and identifying forecasts for individual countries in the region. Read more

Education and violent extremism in Nigeria

  • Author: Gustavo Plácido dos Santos
  • Published: 30 October 2013
  • 2 responses

In this article co-published with openDemocracy, Gustavo Plácido dos Santos asks whether in a context of poor school attendance among Muslims in northern Nigeria is the almajiri system favoured by Boko Haram compatible with a peacebuilding project for the country? Read more

Seven things you need to know about South Sudan’s government crisis

  • Source: Enough Project
  • Filed: 26 July 2013

South Sudanese President Salva Kiir has dissolved his cabinet, fired his vice-president and disposed the chairman of the ruling party. Few observers had expected such a dramatic move. Behind it lies a fierce power struggle inside the ruling party. Read more

Egypt: Persistent issues undermine stability

  • Source: Stratfor
  • Filed: 5 July 2013

Egypt’s crisis goes much deeper than the recent political chaos. Egypt’s population has grown well beyond the means of the state to support its needs, and even a strong state will struggle to ensure sufficient supplies of basic staples, particularly fuel and wheat. Read more

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