Hope for political resolution of conflict in South Sudan despite suspension of peace talks

  • Source: Blog
  • Filed: 4 December 2014

If the peace talks in South Sudan progress, there is the potential for a successful political resolution of the conflict; however, this will ultimately rely the wider political and economic stability of this relatively fledgling country. With tribes in many regions of the country possessing considerable arsenals, it is likely that inter-tribal disputes over land rights and natural resources will threaten the reconciliation process. Read more

Nigeria further destabilised by attacks in northeast of country

  • Source: Blog
  • Filed: 4 December 2014

While government forces have been able to make some limited progress in recapturing towns held by Boko Haram, success has often only been possible with the support of armed civilians. It appears that Nigeria’s security forces are struggling with the insurgency despite having the largest standing army in the region. It is highly likely that Boko Haram will attempt to disrupt the February 2015 elections through sustained attacks in northeastern Nigeria. Read more

Civilian rule returns to Burkina Faso but armed forces retain considerable power

  • Source: Blog
  • Filed: 4 December 2014

Considering the short timeframe in which power has been returned to a civilian institution in Burkina Faso, the makeup of the new interim government, and the strong outside influences of the African Union, UN and Western allies, it is likely that the elections scheduled for November 2015 will take place successfully. However, the relatively significant involvement of the armed forces in this process may be a cause for concern should the electoral process fail to form a legitimate government. Read more

A complex transition to power is in the making in Burkina Faso

  • Author: Gustavo Plácido dos Santos
  • Published: 7 November 2014

Blaise Compaoré’s departure after 27 years at the helm of Burkina Faso was the result of a show of popular resilience and strength. However, the immediate aftermath of this event raises some doubts over whether anything will change at all. While Compaoré resigned due to the popular protests and the anti-establishment violence that ensued, the revolution in Burkina Faso seems to have been hijacked by the military. Read more

Maritime insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea

  • Source: Intelligence unit
  • Filed: 19 March 2014

The Gulf of Guinea, off the south coast of West Africa, has recently surpassed the more infamous Gulf of Aden, off the coast of Somalia in East Africa, as the epicentre of maritime insecurity. This intelligence brief explores the drivers of the problem and the complex nature of the challenges and possible responses, and sets out forecasts for maritime insecurity in the region in 2014. Read more

Southern Africa: Forecasts for insecurity and conflict in 2014

  • Author: Nick Branson
  • Published: 28 February 2014

Some narratives have painted Southern Africa as a region largely absent of conflict and insecurity. In reality, instability persists beneath the surface due to corruption and inequitable settlements following independence or struggles for national liberation. This study from Open Briefing provides forecasts for 10 Southern African countries over 2014. Read more

Central Africa: Forecasts for insecurity and conflict in 2014

  • Author: Nick Branson
  • Published: 20 February 2014

The conflicts that have devastated Central Africa have created a profound level of instability, cycles of repeat violence and a ‘bad neighbourhood’ from which its members have no recourse, particularly landlocked states. Given the high levels of poverty and lack of opportunity, the outlook for much of the region looks bleak. This study from Open Briefing provides forecasts for four Central African countries over 2014. Read more

West Africa: Forecasts for insecurity and conflict in 2014

  • Author: Gustavo Plácido dos Santos
  • Published: 14 February 2014

Some narratives have painted West Africa as a region where conflict and insecurity occur naturally due to ethnic tensions and porous borders. In reality, the underlying sources and drivers of instability are critical to understanding events. This study from Open Briefing attempts to avoid generalisations by analysing specific factors and identifying forecasts for individual countries in the region. Read more

Top