Intelligence brief: How are key National Congress Party ministers managing Sudan’s dual economic and security crises?

  • Author: Scott Hickie
  • Source: Open Briefing
  • Published: 21 February 2013
  • Filed: 21 February 2013
  • No responses
Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir (Photo: Reuters/Mohamed Nureldin Abdallah)

Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir (Photo: Reuters/Mohamed Nureldin Abdallah)

The following conclusions are drawn from an analysis of media imprints from the last three months (January-March 2013).

They provide an insight into how key National Congress Party (NCP) ministers are managing Sudan’s dual economic and security crises.

Internationally, diplomatic efforts appear focused on reaching out to key EU creditors and securing urgent loans from non-Paris Club creditors such as China. These efforts are critical to addressing the dire condition of Sudan’s economy.

Domestically, the government is facing continued efforts and calls by opposition political groups, civil society and armed movements for regime change and a transitional government. Concurrent with its diplomatic outreach to key creditors, the NCP are alleging that the EU and United States are providing support to opposition parties to help unify groups and catalyse the removal of President Omar al-Bashir and the NCP.

Omar al-Bashir

President Omar Hassan al-Bashir appears to have focused on key negotiations with South Sudan sponsored by a number of regional neighbours. The increased international travel by Bashir to Chad and Libya resulted in calls from the International Criminal Court for his arrest and extradition to The Hague. Bashir’s increased travel itinerary may be evidence of the mounting pressure to resolve both ongoing economic and security crises. View data

Nafie Ali Nafie

Media mentions show Presidential Assistant Nafie Ali Nafie’s dual focus over the last three months has been to engage key Scandinavian countries, particularly large creditors holding Sudanese debt, while decrying growing opposition to NCP rule in the form of the New Dawn Charter at home. View data

Ali Osman Taha

While Vice President Ali Osman Taha is not considered part of security hardliner group controlled by Bashir and Nafie, he has joined in with NCP allegations that many civil society groups in Khartoum were ‘interfacing’ with the CIA and helping the United States achieve its regime changes aspirations. Taha has also been involved in releasing funding to the Darfur Regional Authority for peace agreement implementation. View data

Ali Ahmed Karti

Foreign Minister Ali Ahmed Karti is considered more aligned with Taha and noted for his rebuke of Bashir over the docking of Iranian ships in late 2012. His efforts appear to be focused on preventing the referral of the conflict in Abyei to the UN Security Council. View data

Ali Mahmoud

Finance Minister Ali Mahmoud featured heavily in media reports and formal government communications to announce the securing of a $1.5 billion loan from a Chinese state owned bank that put a temporary halt on the currency devaluation/slide. Mahmoud is also reported as discussing how Sudan is going to plug government revenue holes left by severely reduced oil revenue. His focus has been on addressing deteriorating terms of trade through increasing agricultural production/output and reducing agricultural imports through import substitution. View data

This intelligence brief provides supplementary material for A Sudanese Arab Spring and the prospects for opposition unity.

Source: Open Briefing (United Kingdom)

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