- Maritime insecurity incorporates a range of criminal activities, including piracy, smuggling and illegal fishing.
- The Gulf of Guinea has recently surpassed the more infamous Gulf of Aden as the epicentre of maritime insecurity.
- It is likely that the United States will increase its naval presence in the Gulf of Guinea during 2014.
- It is likely that the EU will also participate in an international intervention in the region, though this could possibly be stalled.
- It is likely that the international community will push West African countries to legislate for the deployment of armed security guards on their vessels and agree to greater inter-state collaboration.
- The potential conflict of interests between the international community and shipping companies over armed guards and/or external intervention will likely force a consensus approach that will possibly fail to address the root of the problem.
- It is highly likely that the above moves will lead to a temporary increase in violence in the region.
- As such, maritime insecurity in the region is likely to increase throughout 2014, and Benin, Togo and Guinea-Bissau, in particular, are likely to witness an increase in criminal activities across their territorial waters.
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