Open Briefing: Despite the presence in Sudan of many of the preconditions that led to recent uprisings elsewhere the Middle East and North Africa, a Sudanese ‘Arab Spring’ is assessed as unlikely in the short-term.
Open Briefing: In the last two months alone, Omar al-Bashir's government has survived street protests, denied Israeli allegations of supplying weapons to Hamas and foiled a coup attempt. At the same time, Sudan's economy is edging closer to potential collapse.
Open Briefing: Sudan's economy faces potential collapse. However, its current risk profile will deter many lenders from issuing new loans. As such, debt relief will most likely be the dominant form of any financial relief provided to Sudan.
Open Briefing: The fact that poorly equipped and inexperienced police officers are being tasked with tracking increasingly well-armed cattle rustlers and other criminals in Kenya suggests that the trend in fatal attacks on officers will likely continue.
Open Briefing: The recent agreements between Sudan and South Sudan will take some time to have an impact on the ground and the security threats to UN and INGO staff will, therefore, continue for at least six to 12 months.
Open Briefing: Recent violence in Kenya is cause for great concern as we approach elections in March 2013. A history of political instigators of violence going unchecked has emboldened politicians looking for victory in a Balkanized state.
Open Briefing: After 20 years of failed statehood Somalia now shows the first signs of a new political conjuncture that could bring about peace. However, al-Shabaab will continue to play a role in shaping the country's future.