The first of five monthly intelligence briefings on the Boko Haram insurgency being prepared for the Remote Control Project. This briefing summarises and analyses the main international developments, the actions of US and European partners, the actions of local governments and coalitions, and the various Boko Haram operations over the previous month.
Monthly intelligence briefing on transnational organised crime from Open Briefing. This month: the attack on tourists in Port El Kantaoui highlights threat of terrorism and organised crime in Tunisia; organised environmental crime continues to threaten the Amazon region; people smuggling and human trafficking through Bulgaria and Romania is likely to increase; and more.
This briefing assesses Boko Haram's arsenal, where those munitions come from, and how best to reduce the flow of weapons to the group. The group’s weaponry is predominantly of Russian and Eastern European stock looted from police stations and military bases within Nigeria. It will be impossible to stem the flow of weapons to Boko Haram completely. Ultimately, it will be efforts to tackle the deep structural socio-economic problems in northern Nigeria that will have the most success in fundamentally weakening Boko Haram.
Monthly intelligence briefing on transnational organised crime from Dr Mary Young. This month's spotlight on Africa includes details of the warship gifted to the Nigerian Navy by the United States to help combat transnational organised maritime crime in Nigerian waters, including piracy, oil theft and terrorism.
Blaise Compaoré’s departure after 27 years at the helm of Burkina Faso was the result of a show of popular resilience and strength. However, the immediate aftermath of this event raises some doubts over whether anything will change at all. While Compaoré resigned due to the popular protests and the anti-establishment violence that ensued, the revolution in Burkina Faso seems to have been hijacked by the military.
The Gulf of Guinea, off the south coast of West Africa, has recently surpassed the more infamous Gulf of Aden, off the coast of Somalia in East Africa, as the epicentre of maritime insecurity. This intelligence brief explores the drivers of the problem and the complex nature of the challenges and possible responses, and sets out forecasts for maritime insecurity in the region in 2014.
Some narratives have painted Southern Africa as a region largely absent of conflict and insecurity. In reality, instability persists beneath the surface due to corruption and inequitable settlements following independence or struggles for national liberation. This study from Open Briefing provides forecasts for 10 Southern African countries over 2014.
The conflicts that have devastated Central Africa have created a profound level of instability, cycles of repeat violence and a ‘bad neighbourhood’ from which its members have no recourse, particularly landlocked states. Given the high levels of poverty and lack of opportunity, the outlook for much of the region looks bleak. This study from Open Briefing provides forecasts for four Central African countries over 2014.