Political and security risk updates from around the world. This week: Newly-announced figures reveal extent of pan-European economic slowdown; clashes commence after Iraqi government and Kurdish troops begin encircling Mosul ahead of offensive to recapture city from Islamic State; Boko Haram releases video purportedly showing abducted Chibok schoolgirls; and more.
Tag: Russia
The weekly briefing, 2 August 2016: United Kingdom begins to feel negative economic consequences of Brexit decision, al-Nusra Front changes name and splits from al-Qaeda, Thailand’s ruling junta cracking down on dissent ahead of constitutional referendum
Political and security risk updates from around the world. This week: United Kingdom begins to feel negative economic consequences of decision by small majority of British voters to leave European Union; al-Nusra Front in Syria changes name and splits from al-Qaeda; Thailand’s ruling junta cracking down on dissent ahead of scheduled constitutional referendum that could strengthen its authority; and more.
Iran’s Shanghai dream
Tehran has enjoyed observer status in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) since 2005, but has repeatedly pressed its case for full membership. The organisation's two centres of power disagree over Iran's position: Moscow supports Iranian accession but Beijing seemingly opposes such a move. Iran shares with the SCO the ambition to challenge US dominance and the Western-led order. For Iran, the SCO is also the closest it has to an international defence bulwark, since it is not a member of any other regional security organisation.
Weekly political and security risk update, 21 June 2016: US Senate votes down gun control measures; Britain gears up for EU referendum; Russia plans to maintain mliitary presence in Arctic
The first in a new series of weekly briefings covering political and security risk updates from around the world. This week: the US Senate has voted down four separate gun control measures in the aftermath of the mass shooting in Orlando, Florida, which killed 49 people; the United Kingdom will shortly vote on its membership of the European Union against the backdrop of an increasingly antagonistic campaign and the shocking far-right murder of a pro-EU MP; Russia has announced it plans to maintain its military presence in the Artic region; and more from Africa, the Americas, Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East and Polar regions.
The war with Islamic State: An assessment of the United Kingdom’s Operation Shader and the wider coalition campaign against Islamic State in Iraq and Syria
Overall, the US-led coalition has had some considerable successes in containing and rolling back Islamic State in Iraq and Syria; however, much more should have been achieved given the combined military might and other resources of the 66 members of the global coalition to counter Islamic State. Those gains that have been made have come at the expense of civilian casualties. Furthermore, there are no signs that the terrorist threat to the United Kingdom from Islamic State is reducing despite nearly two years of UK airstrikes and other efforts to target the group.
Remote-control warfare briefing #15, May 2016: Shadowy Russian private military company fighting alongside Spetsnaz in Syria, US officials explore scenarios for Islamic State ‘dirty bomb’ attacks, studies find mass surveillance having negative impact on democracy
Monthly briefing from the Open Briefing intelligence unit on developments in remote-control warfare. This month: shadowy Russian private military company fighting alongside Spetsnaz special forces in Syria; US officials explore scenarios for Islamic State ‘dirty bomb’ attacks using drones; studies find mass surveillance having negative impact on democracy and informed debate; and more.
UK actions against Islamic State in Iraq and Syria: Intelligence briefing #5, April 2016
This briefing provides an update on recent developments in the conflict against Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. It also includes an overview of UK air, ground and sea forces in the region and an analysis of Ministry of Defence data on airstrikes. It concludes that the deliberate opacity surrounding UK special forces deployments allows the British government to authorise ground operations while at the same time claiming that there are no UK combat troops involved in the conflict, thereby sidestepping public and parliamentary debate.
Nobody, but us! Recent developments in Russia’s airborne forces (VDV)
Recent changes in personnel levels, coupled with equipment modernisation and operational experience, has made Russia’s elite airborne force (the VDV) an even more formidable force. As Russia shifts its gaze from perceived threats along its southern borders to those along its western ones, together with a fundamental shift to a military doctrine that once more sees NATO as the primary threat, the temptation to use the VDV as a military solution to political problems will likely only grow.
