Political and security risk updates from around the world. This week: United Kingdom begins to feel negative economic consequences of decision by small majority of British voters to leave European Union; al-Nusra Front in Syria changes name and splits from al-Qaeda; Thailand’s ruling junta cracking down on dissent ahead of scheduled constitutional referendum that could strengthen its authority; and more.
The violence in the Central African Republic is currently dominating news headlines, as have events in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in the past. A timely new study from Open Briefing attempts to avoid generalisations by analysing specific factors and identifying forecasts for individual countries in Central Africa.
The conflicts that have devastated Central Africa have created a profound level of instability, cycles of repeat violence and a ‘bad neighbourhood’ from which its members have no recourse, particularly landlocked states. Given the high levels of poverty and lack of opportunity, the outlook for much of the region looks bleak. This study from Open Briefing provides forecasts for four Central African countries over 2014.