Political and security risk updates from around the world. This week: al-Shabaab attacks hotel in Mogadishu, Islamic State carries out first attack in Jordan and two people killed in grenade attack in Madagascar; Britain reels from the political and economic fallout from the referendum vote to leave the European Union; North Korea test fires two intermediate-range missiles towards Japan; and more.
For the past six months, Open Briefing's Africa desk has been developing forecasts for insecurity and conflict in Africa over 2014. They have today published the synthesis report for Southern Africa, covering: Angola, Botswana, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
Some narratives have painted Southern Africa as a region largely absent of conflict and insecurity. In reality, instability persists beneath the surface due to corruption and inequitable settlements following independence or struggles for national liberation. This study from Open Briefing provides forecasts for 10 Southern African countries over 2014.