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Category: Middle East and North Africa

Intelligence brief: What is the current status of missing US freelance journalist Austin Tice?

Open Briefing: It is highly likely that missing US journalist Austin Tice was captured by Syrian military forces and, if still alive, is likely still in government custody. However, it is impossible to assess with any confidence his current location or condition.

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Intelligence brief: What is the probability of an Israeli strike against Iran in the six months following the 2012 US presidential election?

Open Briefing: An Israeli strike against Iran is highly unlikely between the US presidential elections in November 2012 and the Israeli elections in January 2013, and unlikely between January and the Iranian presidential elections in June 2013.

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Intelligence brief: Will the United States or the United Kingdom play a role in supporting any Israeli military strike against Iran in the six months following the 2012 US presidential election?

Open Briefing: The United States and Britain are unlikely to support any Israeli strike against Iran in the first six months following the November 2012 US presidential election. This will likely remain the case regardless of who wins the election.

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